Phronesis Calibration Scorecard

Generated 2026-10-09T18:51:31Z

Aggregate calibration

Forecasts minted
31
Forecasts scored
2
Fallback-narrative count
6
Average MAPE
—
RMSE p50 / p80 / p95
— / — / —
Pinball loss p50 / p80 / p95
— / — / —

By provenance

Phronesis mints first-party forecasts to seed and prove its calibration record. They resolve against the same public resolution rules as customer assets, and are labeled here.

First Party
5 minted · — avg MAPE
Customer
10 minted · — avg MAPE
Unattributed
16 minted · — avg MAPE

Forecast Ledger

FC-IDMinted (UTC)SubjectTargetHorizonPoint forecastUncertainty band (p10…p90)CaveatsScore (Brier)Proof
FC-20260729-0012026-07-29T20:28:48.793968ZenergyERCOT system-wide peak demand, August 2026, exceeds the August 2025 peak2026-07-11T03:11:18Z → 2026-09-15T23:59:59Z @ monthly0.72 probability (Aug-2026 ERCOT peak > Aug-2025 ERCOT peak)0.5 … 0.88—resolvedanchor-verified
FC-20260716-0012026-07-16T02:59:06.784721ZenergyERCOT actual peak hourly system load for September 2026 exceeds the September 2025 peak2026-07-16T02:58:47Z → 2026-10-15T23:59:59Z @ monthly81000 MW72000 … 90000—pendinganchor-verified
FC-20260714-0022026-07-14T18:05:24.349174ZclimateNOAA ranks August 2026 CONUS average temperature among the top 10 warmest Augusts on record2026-07-14T18:05:01Z → 2026-09-20T23:59:59Z @ monthly0.72 probability0.55 … 0.86—resolvedanchor-verified
FC-20260714-0012026-07-14T14:51:39.530021ZenergyEIA STEO's projection of 2027 US total electricity consumption is revised UP between the July-2026 and October-2026 editions2026-07-14T14:51:19Z → 2026-10-15T23:59:59Z @ monthly0.63 probability (0-1) that 2027 US total electricity consumption is revised UP from July-2026 STEO to October-2026 STEO0.4 … 0.82—pendinganchor-verified
FC-20260711-0012026-07-11T03:11:42.532607ZenergyERCOT system-wide peak demand, August 2026, exceeds the August 2025 peak2026-07-11T03:11:18Z → 2026-09-15T23:59:59Z @ monthly0.72 probability (Aug-2026 ERCOT peak > Aug-2025 ERCOT peak)0.5 … 0.88—pendinganchor-verified
FC-20260530-0022026-05-30T21:36:26.984682Zsupply_chainlithium_supply_gap_kt_lce_per_country_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ quarterly312.5 kt LCE aggregate annual supply gap (2030, 5-country survey AU+CL+CN+AR+US)165.0 … 520.0—pending—
FC-20260530-0012026-05-30T21:35:44.863291Zquantumsuperconducting_qubit_count_canonical_roadmap_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annualnarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260528-0022026-05-28T04:13:15.840275Zlongevitydunedinpace_aging_clock_canonical_validation_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual0.42 probability0.22 … 0.65—pending—
FC-20260528-0012026-05-28T03:01:08.569417Zphysics_materialswide_bandgap_semiconductor_novel_material_discovery_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual0.38 probability0.18 … 0.62—pending—
FC-20260526-0052026-05-26T20:39:15.996949Zclimatecat3plus_landfall_probability_pct_per_state_atlantic_20262026-06-01 → 2026-11-30 @ annual48 cat3plus_landfall_probability_pct (season-aggregate, any of 10 surveyed states)32 … 65—pending—
FC-20260526-0042026-05-26T20:38:16.238424Zregulatorystate_rps_implementation_lag_bps_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual142 implementation_lag_bps68 … 268—pending—
FC-20260526-0032026-05-26T19:44:28.264978Zregulatorystate_rps_implementation_lag_bps_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual215 implementation_lag_bps95 … 410—pending—
FC-20260526-0022026-05-26T19:12:21.494795Zregulatorystate_rps_implementation_lag_bps_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual185 implementation_lag_bps95 … 340—pending—
FC-20260526-0012026-05-26T18:50:23.760452Zregulatorystate_rps_implementation_lag_bps_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual215 implementation_lag_bps95 … 410—pending—
FC-20260521-0012026-05-21T04:03:42.630032ZenergyW3-G1 durability sentinel2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30 @ monthly0.72 unitless (0-1 durability index)0.58 … 0.84—pending—
FC-20260518-0012026-05-18T19:17:55.640781Zregulatorystate_rps_implementation_lag_bps_2027_20302027-01-01 → 2030-12-31 @ annual312 implementation_lag_bps185 … 487—pending—
FC-SENTINEL-17776984732026-05-02T05:07:280984ZenergySentinel: workspace-vs-deployment DB sharing test2026-12-01 → 2026-12-31 @ monthly1.0 sentinel1.0 … 1.0TRAINING_DATA_CUTOFFpending—
FC-20260428-0022026-04-28T14:19:761377Zspacespacex_starlink_ipo_probability_q4_20272027-10-01T00:00:00Z → 2027-12-31T23:59:59Z @ quarterly52 ipo_probability_pct25 … 78—pending—
FC-20260428-0012026-04-28T01:15:736057Zroboticshumanoid_robot_industry_aggregate_deployment_cadence2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31 @ quarterly2840 cumulative_units_deployed_across_all_manufacturing_customers_US1200 … 5100—pending—
FC-20260426-0022026-04-26T18:17:911912Zhealthcareus_diabetes_incidence_per_100k_2026_20272026-07-01T00:00:00Z → 2027-06-30T23:59:59Z @ quarterly685 cases_per_100k640 … 735—pending—
FC-20260426-0012026-04-26T03:19:035950ZintersectionERCOT aggregate data center power demand in Q4 20262026-10-01T00:00:00Z → 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z @ quarterly4850 MW_average3920 … 5890—pending—
FC-20260425-0012026-04-25T20:08:866212ZenergyEIA-projected total US net electricity generation in November 20262026-11-01 → 2026-11-30 @ monthly295 TWh280 … 312—pending—
FC-20260424-0052026-04-24T14:59:661066Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ daily450 MW280 … 650—pending—
FC-20260424-0062026-04-24T14:59:590504Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ dailynarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260424-0032026-04-24T14:48:959275Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ dailynarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260424-0042026-04-24T14:48:698515Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ dailynarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260424-0022026-04-24T04:01:964423Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ dailynarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260424-0012026-04-24T04:01:050687Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-24 → 2026-05-24 @ dailynarrative only — not scoreable——pending—
FC-20260423-0012026-04-23T00:31:299734Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-23 → 2026-05-23 @ daily———pending—
FC-20260423-0022026-04-23T00:31:238546Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-23 → 2026-05-23 @ daily———pending—
FC-20260422-0012026-04-22T22:10:978206Zenergyphase_a_to_b_trigger_smoke_test2026-04-22 → 2026-05-22 @ daily———pending—

Calibration scores

FC-IDMetricScoreForecast valueGround-truth valueScored at (UTC)
FC-20260729-001brier0.078400000000000010.721.02026-09-15T18:46:10.317669Z
FC-20260714-002brier0.078400000000000010.721.02026-09-20T17:57:44.761921Z

Ground truths

SourceMetric keyReport periodValueUnitsFetched (UTC)
ERCOT Native Load 2026ercot_peak_aug2026_exceeds_aug20252026-081.0indicator2026-09-15T18:46:09Z
NOAA NCEI monthly national climate reportnoaa_conus_aug2026_top102026-081.0indicator2026-09-20T17:57:44Z

Tier 2 Calibration Scorecard — Kalshi-benchmark

Resolved Kalshi markets in window
0
Phronesis ↔ Kalshi matched pairs
0
Cross-vertical Brier (Phronesis)
—
Cross-vertical Brier (Kalshi market)
—
Brier delta (Phronesis - Kalshi)
— [n_below_30]

Per-vertical calibration

VerticalMetricPhronesis scoreKalshi scoreBrier deltaN matchedSignificance
V#1mape———0n_below_30
V#1rmse———0n_below_30
V#1pinball———0n_below_30
V#1brier———0n_below_30
V#2mape———0n_below_30
V#2rmse———0n_below_30
V#2pinball———0n_below_30
V#2brier———0n_below_30
V#3mape———0n_below_30
V#3rmse———0n_below_30
V#3pinball———0n_below_30
V#3brier———0n_below_30
V#4mape———0n_below_30
V#4rmse———0n_below_30
V#4pinball———0n_below_30
V#4brier———0n_below_30
V#5mape———0n_below_30
V#5rmse———0n_below_30
V#5pinball———0n_below_30
V#5brier———0n_below_30
V#6mape———0n_below_30
V#6rmse———0n_below_30
V#6pinball———0n_below_30
V#6brier———0n_below_30
V#7mape———0n_below_30
V#7rmse———0n_below_30
V#7pinball———0n_below_30
V#7brier———0n_below_30
V#8mape———0n_below_30
V#8rmse———0n_below_30
V#8pinball———0n_below_30
V#8brier———0n_below_30

Per-Pythia-ring calibration

Pythia ringMetricPhronesis scoreKalshi scoreBrier deltaN matchedSignificance
pythia_energymape———0n_below_30
pythia_energyrmse———0n_below_30
pythia_energypinball———0n_below_30
pythia_energybrier———0n_below_30
pythia_computemape———0n_below_30
pythia_computermse———0n_below_30
pythia_computepinball———0n_below_30
pythia_computebrier———0n_below_30
pythia_healthcaremape———0n_below_30
pythia_healthcarermse———0n_below_30
pythia_healthcarepinball———0n_below_30
pythia_healthcarebrier———0n_below_30
pythia_climatemape———0n_below_30
pythia_climatermse———0n_below_30
pythia_climatepinball———0n_below_30
pythia_climatebrier———0n_below_30
pythia_regulatorymape———0n_below_30
pythia_regulatoryrmse———0n_below_30
pythia_regulatorypinball———0n_below_30
pythia_regulatorybrier———0n_below_30
pythia_supply_chainmape———0n_below_30
pythia_supply_chainrmse———0n_below_30
pythia_supply_chainpinball———0n_below_30
pythia_supply_chainbrier———0n_below_30
pythia_spacemape———0n_below_30
pythia_spacermse———0n_below_30
pythia_spacepinball———0n_below_30
pythia_spacebrier———0n_below_30
pythia_roboticsmape———0n_below_30
pythia_roboticsrmse———0n_below_30
pythia_roboticspinball———0n_below_30
pythia_roboticsbrier———0n_below_30